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Another off-year election, another good night for Democrats – a rejoinder to a spate of recent polls showing alarming 2024 prospects for President Joe Biden. In Election Day’s marquee contests – the Kentucky gubernatorial race, Virginia’s legislative elections and a pro-abortion-rights ballot measure in Ohio – Democrats notched victories. Beyond that, “the real test was Trump’s ability to move voters in a state race,” Cross says. Tate Reeves won a second term – though the race was relatively close for a deep red state. In the secretary of state race, incumbent Michael Watson, a Republican, outran Reeves by more than 8 points in defeating Democrat Ty Pinkins.

Persons: Democrats –, Joe Biden, Andy Beshear, Daniel Cameron, Kentucky’s, Beshear, Biden, Cameron, Glenn Youngkin, ”, Roe, Wade, Beshear’s, Al Cross, Cross, “ I’m, Rich Meagher, Youngkin, “, Paul Beck, Daniel McCaffery, Carolyn Carluccio, Larry Ceisler, Micah Rasmussen, Rider, –, Tate Reeves, Democrat Brandon Presley, Elvis Presley, Reeves, Democrat hasn’t, Presley, Jim Hood, “ Reeves, Steve Rozman, Donald Trump’s, Reeves “, ” Rozman, Republican Russell Coleman, Pamela Stevenson, Michael Adams –, Buddy Wheatley, Lynn Fitch, Democrat Greta Kemp Martin, Michael Watson, outran Reeves, Ty Pinkins, Mark Brewer Organizations: Democrats, Kentucky gubernatorial, Democratic, Republican, GOP, University of Kentucky’s Institute for Rural Journalism, Macon College, Senate, Republicans, Ohio State University, Rebovich Institute for New, Democrat, Public Service Commission, Mississippi, College, University of Maine Locations: Ohio, Kentucky, In Virginia, Letcher, Perry County, Hazard, Breathitt County, Jackson, Virginia, Randolph, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, ”, New Jersey, Jersey, Rebovich Institute for New Jersey, Mississippi, Maine

Steve Beshear – faces Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron, a protege of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. In Mississippi, Republican Lynn Fitch is seeking a second term against Greta Kemp Martin, the litigation director of Disability Rights Mississippi. Democratic attorney Lindsey Cheek won the other runoff slot by taking 23% of the all-party primary vote. In Mississippi, Republican incumbent Michael Watson is seeking a second term and should easily defeat Democrat Ty Pinkins. She will face Democratic attorney, accountant, and small business owner Gwen Collins-Greenup, who finished second in the primary.

Persons: — it’s, Kentuckians, Andy Beshear, Jeff Landry, Beshear, Steve Beshear –, Daniel Cameron, Mitch McConnell, Kentucky’s, He’s, Cameron, Tate Reeves, Brandon Presley, Elvis Presley, Presley, Reeves, Democrat hasn’t, Jim Hood, Glenn Youngkin’s, Winsome Sears, Youngkin, Phil Murphy, Democratic Sen, Robert Menendez, Joe Biden, Max Baer, Carolyn Carluccio, Daniel McCaffery, Donald Trump, wouldn’t, Roe, Wade, Ohio’s, Sen, Bernie Sanders of, Janet Mills, Russell Coleman, McConnell, Pamela Stevenson, Republican Lynn Fitch, Greta Kemp Martin, Fitch, Liz Murrill, Landry, Lindsey Cheek, Michael Adams, Buddy Wheatley, Adams, Michael Watson, Ty Pinkins, Shuwaski Young, Young, Kyle Ardoin, Nancy Landry, Gwen Collins, Greenup Organizations: Democratic Gov, Democratic, Republican, Gubernatorial, Gov, Lean Democratic, Republican Gov, Public Service Commission, Democrat, Mississippi, Public, Impact Research, Lean Republican, State Legislative, Virginia, GOP, Senate, Republicans, House, George Mason University, Assembly, , New Jersey Republicans, Pleas, Superior Court, Ohio, Sierra Club, AFL, of Commerce, Avangrid Inc, Trump, Air Force, Disability Rights Mississippi, State, Iraq Locations: Mississippi, Virginia, Republican . New Jersey, Garden, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Maine, In Kentucky, Republican Mississippi, U.S, Northern Virginia, Richmond, Hampton Roads, Washington, New Jersey, , New Jersey, Montgomery County, In Ohio, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Massachusetts, Texas, Kentucky, Louisiana, State Kentucky, In Mississippi

All three states lean heavily Republican in federal elections, yet Democrats currently control the governorship in two out of the three. As usual, we are rating these races on the following scale: Safe Republican, Likely Republican, Lean Republican, Toss-Up, Lean Democratic, Likely Democratic and Safe Democratic. The race moving in the Republican direction is Louisiana, which we’re shifting from Likely Republican to Safe Republican. But for now, we’ll keep it at Likely Republican. That may be in tune with Kentucky voters, who, despite the state’s Republican lean, rejected a 2022 ballot measure that would have enhanced the state’s ability to outlaw abortion.

Persons: There’s, Andy Beshear, Democrat John Bel Edwards, Republican Tate Reeves, Edwards, Jeff Landry, Shawn Wilson, Edwards –, Landry, Donald Trump, Stephen Waguespack, John Schroder, Sen, Sharon Hewitt, Hunter Lundy, Lundy, he’s, polluters, Wilson, Mason, Dixon, that’s, Republican Reeves isn’t, Brandon Presley, Phil Bryant, Brett Favre, Favre, Reeves hasn’t, drumbeat, Reeves, Democrat hasn’t, Jim Hood, Presley, Elvis Presley, Beshear, Steve Beshear, Daniel Cameron, Mitch McConnell, Joe Biden, Kentuckians, Cameron, He’s, Trump Organizations: Republicans, Democrat, Republican, Lean Republican, Lean Democratic, Democratic, Safe Democratic, Safe Republican, Louisiana Safe Republican, Republican Party, Republican Governors Association, Mississippi, NFL, University of Southern, Public Service Commission, Kentucky Lean Democratic, Gov, Beshear, Kentucky, Democratic Governors Association Locations: Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, In Mississippi, Landry, Lundy, Brandon, Federal, University of Southern Mississippi, Cincinnati

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